Tuesday....International.....Contingency Plans

All of a sudden Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said sure, we'll pass on that uranium to be enriched and returned at non-weapons capability. A day later he offered to talk about swapping the three American hikers he has imprisoned and North Korea's Kim Jong-il said that he will release an American held prisoner. Yesterday (Feb 3) it was reported that Iran tested a rocket that purportedly dealt with space technology but our analysts say that there did not seem to be anything new in this test. What are we to make of this posturing that was preceded by statements that the West would be dealt a blow to global arrogance on February 11th, the end of celebrations in Iran of the revolution of 1979? One possibility is that Ahmadinejad is backing off of his nuclear ambitions but that is highly unlikely. Historians have studied Japan's actions before their attack on Pearl Harbor and much has been written on Hitler's plans on attacking its neighbors even as he talked peace with England's Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain. Are we being taken in by such designs right now? The latest of the warnings of an al Qaeda attack on America came this week as CIA Director Leon Panetta said that he loses sleep at night over the communications traffic going on now that indicates something immanent may be in the works. A Syrian official warned Israel that if there is another Middle East war it will be fought in Israel's cities. General Petraeus commented that an attack on Iran might stir up nationalist feelings in that country even with the opposition today to Ahmadinejad, who is a man who believes that chaos is necessary for the coming of the 12th Imam and who has met with representatives of Pakistan and Qatar in the last few days. One thing that he could have influence in is in the flow of oil from the Middle East which would directly effect the world's economy. It is said that Bobby Fischer could see twenty-some moves in advance on the chessboard. It was very hard, nearly impossible, to surprise him with an attack that he wasn't prepared for. Hopefully, contingency plans have been wisely devised. America has experienced numerous crises in the last 50 years but the Cuban Missile Crisis did not compare with what we face today for the Soviets had a plan but nuclear war was not a proactive part of it. We lived through Watergate but that may pale in comparison to the secret financial wheelings and dealings going on today. We experienced a few stock market collapses but if the situation today implodes, it will be worse than all of them put together. The situation is grave . Thomas Paine said in 1776 that these are the times that try men's souls and we have much more unsettled and unstable conditions today.